Cox Automotive Lowers Full-12 months New-Car Gross sales Forecast as Persistent Provide Issues Proceed to Maintain Again Auto Trade

UPDATED, July 5, 2022 – The Cox Automotive Trade Insights workforce had anticipated a year-over-year decline in June auto gross sales. The precise decline, nonetheless, was even better than anticipated. Gross sales final month got here in at roughly 1.125 million; the forecast was for 1.2 million. 

Some declines had been notably notable, with massive year-over-year declines at Buick, Honda, Mazda, Nissan and others. The Honda drop was onerous to disregard, with June gross sales being 54% decrease than a 12 months in the past. The year-over-year decline final month was much like Honda’s year-over-year drop in April 2020, when the worldwide COVID pandemic had shut down a lot of the U.S. market. Honda has merely run out of stock. In June 2021, Honda had almost 130,000 new automobiles on the market on seller heaps throughout the U.S., based on our vAuto workforce’s estimates. Final month, the quantity was nearer to 40,000, a drop of almost 70%. One other important lower was Buick, down by greater than 45% in comparison with June 2021. Mazda was off greater than 50%. Nissan fell 40% 12 months over 12 months.

As Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough continues to notice, with no materials change in stock ranges, new-vehicle gross sales within the U.S. will proceed to underperform expectations. Sure, the mix of excessive new-vehicle costs and ongoing inflationary considerations are slowing the market, however new-vehicle gross sales are primarily being held in examine by low inventories.  

Our workforce had anticipated some enhancements in new-vehicle stock by summer season, however the features haven’t materialized. We proceed to function in a vendor’s market, the place good offers are onerous to seek out. Stock ranges have improved in some corners of the market, primarily with the home nameplates: Dodge, Ram, Jeep, Ford and Chevrolet. However total, stock stays tight, notably for small, fuel-efficient automobiles.

Cox Automotive final month lowered its full-year forecast for new-vehicle gross sales within the U.S. to 14.4 million items, down from 15.3 million. At present gross sales charges, new-vehicle gross sales volumes in 2022 will end under the pandemic 12 months of 2020, as stock has turn out to be the trade’s long-haul drawback.

ATLANTA, June 28, 2022 – June U.S. new-vehicle gross sales are anticipated to indicate a market nonetheless constrained by an absence of provide and one that’s just about unchanged since January. In response to the Cox Automotive June gross sales forecast launched at this time, the seasonally adjusted annual fee (SAAR) of new-vehicle gross sales this month is predicted to hit 13.8 million, up from final month’s 12.7 million tempo however nicely under final 12 months’s 15.5 million stage. 

The gross sales quantity in June is predicted to complete close to 1.2 million items, down 7.5% from final 12 months’s quantity of 1.3 million gross sales. Nonetheless, this is a rise of seven.5% from Might’s quantity of almost 1.1 million items. There’s another promoting day this June than final 12 months and the identical quantity as final month. 

Tight stock continues to negatively impression new-vehicle gross sales. Since June 2021, month-to-month gross sales quantity has been caught in a good window, with little deviation, averaging 1.1 million items a month and peaking solely at 1.3 million in June 2021. With no clear timeline for any notable restoration in new-vehicle stock ranges, Cox Automotive is decreasing its full-year 2022 U.S. auto gross sales forecast to 14.4 million items, down from its present forecast of 15.3 million. The present forecast now could be for new-vehicle gross sales volumes to fall under the 14.6 million bought in 2020 when the market was initially ravaged by the worldwide COVID pandemic.  

“Final June, I wrote that the priority in regards to the provide scenario couldn’t be overstated, as we had been in untested territory for the market,” mentioned Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. “That sentiment stays, as there was no important shift within the circumstances on the bottom since final fall. Although financial circumstances have worsened up to now months, the dearth of provide continues to be the best headwind going through the auto trade at this time.”  

  • In June, mild car gross sales are forecast to succeed in 1.2 million items, down 7.5% from June 2021. Gross sales quantity in June is predicted to rise by almost 181,000 in comparison with Might, or 7.5%.
  • The SAAR in June 2022 is predicted to be 13.8 million, under final 12 months’s 15.5 million stage and up from Might’s 12.7 million tempo.
  • Second-quarter 2022 gross sales are forecast to fall 19.3% in comparison with Q2 2021
  • First-half gross sales are forecast to be down 17.3% from the identical interval in 2021.
  • Common Motors is forecast to outsell Toyota in Q2, leaping again into the top-seller place.
  • Tesla is the one main model to extend gross sales 12 months over 12 months within the first half. Honda, Nissan and VW all see first-half gross sales drops in extra of 30% 12 months over 12 months.

All percentages are primarily based on uncooked quantity, not every day promoting fee.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes shopping for, promoting, proudly owning and utilizing automobiles simpler for everybody. The worldwide firm’s greater than 27,000 workforce members and household of manufacturers, together with Autotrader®,®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Guide®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are keen about serving to hundreds of thousands of automotive consumers, 40,000 auto seller purchasers throughout 5 continents and lots of others all through the automotive trade thrive for generations to come back. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based firm with annual revenues of almost $20 billion.

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346

Dara Hailes
470 658 0656

Media Contacts:
Mark Schirmer
734 883 6346

Dara Hailes
470 658 0656

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